
Behavioral Bias - Episode 2

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Hello and welcome to the life by Design podcast, brought to you by strategic. This podcast is all about helping you live your great life. Each episode will feature insights from our Chief Investment Officer, Doug Walters. In addition, we'll also have a guest interview this week. We have Greg Marcola, senior advisor and partner here at strategic. All right. Well, we're. Back and I've got Doug here again for weekly insights. Welcome, Doug. Thank you. So, Doug, this week, I've been hearing a lot about this thing called corrections being in corrections territory and what does that mean for us and? For our clients.
Right. Well, it's one. It's a term that the media loves to use because it it sounds really. Very technically, and it is pretty arbitrary, but technically it means the market is down 10% from a peak. Yeah. So that's really all that a correction is. And whenever we hit it, you will see all the you know that the media sort of jumping on it as this big moment we're in correction territory and it does. Create a bit of emotion out. There.
Hmm, is this something that is a a pretty regular happenstance and something that we've seen often over the course of several years or however long you you are necessarily looking at the?
Market. Yeah, it's not that unusual if we think about the last few years in fact. It's probably more unusual to have a year where we don't have a correction. 2024 was one of those years. We had no correction in the market, pretty much just sort of steadily rows. But if you look at 2023, we had a correction, 2022, which was a down year. We had multiple corrections multiple times where we sort of peaked and then went down by 10%.
Oh. MHM.
2020 obviously big correction. We all know what caused that. And so if you're looking at those five years as representative kind of 1A.
Year 1A, Year OK. And is this? I'm sure there's a lot of different factors, but most likely uncertainty is is one of the big factors that kind of drives corrections.
Right. Yeah. The market is always trying to price in the best information it has. And when that information becomes uncertain. The sort of default is to pull back a bit if we don't know what's going to happen. Let's take the foot off the gas a little bit. That's going to hit hit the market. And so uncertainty when uncertainty rises, that tends to impact markets. That's not always the cause of a correction, but it certainly does contribute.
So. So then the market is almost reacting the same way. If I was watching the news every day, the markets reacting the same way and trying to anticipate something that it heard. On the government shutdown, as an example like ohh if that happens, we need to be prepared for that by doing XY and Z.
Right, right. And it's important to say we, you know, we always use this term the market, the market, right, it's investors, right, there are millions of investors who are interpreting this data and if they start to get nervous about what that data says.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And sometimes that nervousness is just about, you know, the data is uncertain, right, we. When that uncertainty rises, there's going to be a bigger discount applied to the market and and that's again is the accumulation of millions of investors reacting to that information. It's always the market is always trying to. I should say investors are always trying to price in what they think. You know what? You know what they think the valuation of the market.
Yeah. And then does that apply similarly to like consumer sentiment? And it's it very similar to that? Like how does that factor in as well and and how the consumer?
Feels. Yeah, it is. It is related. Oftentimes, consumer sentiment is a lagging indicator, the market going down kind of brings. Consumer sentiment down. Mm-hmm. Actually had a colleague who once said that the only thing that consumer sentiment can predict is consumer sentiment, meaning it's really it's lagging, right? It's it's. It's a reflection of people's feelings. People's feelings when it comes to the economy are often driven by the market.
Hmm.
And so as we look around the world, what kind of things are we seeing outside of the United States?
Well, we are seeing in terms of you know, market performance. We're seeing actually really good performance. Outside of the US and that is coming in two forms for us who are investing here in the US and dollars. It's coming in two forms. 1 is just a perhaps a more positive outlook in the sense that if you think about Europe for example, it's already.
Yeah.
Coming from a position of being better value. When we think about the US, we think about. The magnificent 7. You know a very, you know, a very expensive market in general. Europe is sort of the opposite. It is a way to play value. So there's, you know, a little bit more better sentiment in terms of valuation. The other thing that we've seen happen is is that the dollar has weakened and for us, US investors, the dollar weakening is going to raise the price. Of. Of international equities. So we get to be a benefit of that and year to date, I think that number is somewhere between 4:00 and.
5%, yeah. And so from this past weekly insights and for those of you who don't know you can you can read all of Doug's weekly insights on our website under the resources, but you opened up with stocks. Ended the week in the red for the 4th week in a row and for the sixth time in seven weeks, the S&P 500 officially deep, dipped into correction territory. The Magnificent 7 have become the mediocre 7, and that's generous. Tariffs are high and consumer sentiment is low and you should forget everything I just said right.
Right. And really the message here is just don't get caught in the emotion of these headlines, everything we're seeing year to date, while not fun, is quite normal. We talked about, you know, corrections happen on average once a year. And I should say. When we think about those last five years, you know, with those corrections, with the pandemic. Investors earned about 17% in the US equities per year during that time period, so it's worth, you know, taking a step back, remembering that these things happen. But patient investors have, you know, have, you know, benefited from that market going up and. You know, smart investors are going to be those that don't shy away from these markets, but start to see opportunity really the way to think about. You know, a market falling is it's becoming less expensive. You would never go to the store and see, you know, the price of your favorite object you're looking to buy falling and being like, oh, forget it. I'm out of here. Yeah. Yeah, you'd be like, oh, right, you know, now's the time to buy. Right. And it's it really is no different with investments, unless you think. You know, structurally, you know, the world is, uh is is coming to an end. Now companies you know, we live in a capitalist country companies. Are are here to make profits. They're going to find a way to make profits. So if we start to see the market sell off, look for those opportunities to to Bargain Hunt.
Yeah. And I think you said it last week and and I think it's a a repeatable thing is that. From your perspective, it's not that you're looking to tell the future or that you know specifically that something's going to. Work out. It's just that the opportunity there is, is great. When when stuff starts to fall off and so buying, buying low quote UN quote is going to be better than buying when it's already rising, right, right. And then and there's the hopes that and like you said that most companies are looking to be profitable. So ideally they're going to get back on.
Track, right? Yeah. And the really the the systematic way to take advantage of that is with a diversified portfolio. Again, we didn't predict that international was going to be outperforming the US by so much this year, but a diversified portfolio allows you to take advantage of that and that systematic rebalancing.
MHM.
Allows you to sell high and buy low. So as we see international outperforming when we do a rebalance. We're going to be. Locking some of that outperformance in and we're going to be buying whatever's been underperforming. So that's a nice way to systematically take advantage of it. And then if we were to see the market continue to fall to a point where there's a real valuation opportunity, that's when we can get really tactical.
And so, you know, looking to the week ahead, not necessarily. You know, I think after both the conversations of these two podcasts, hey, maybe you don't, maybe people listening out there don't look at the market and don't don't look at the news as closely, but what are what are we seeing for the next week ahead for the investment team here.
For the investment team? Yeah, that's a tough question. I mean, we are always, you know, we're really doing the same thing every week, which is being vigilant, being prepared, it sounds, you know, that may sound boring, but every day we are trying to prepare for the next day. And that means making sure that portfolios are are properly rebalanced, that they are well diversified, that if an opportunity starts to open up, that we're taking advantage of it. And again, a boring answer, but it is the same thing that we do every day is really just prepare for that next day. Prepare for that next week and be ready for whatever the market throws at us. Again, what we are not doing or underlying it you said it earlier, we are not predicting what is happening certainly over the next week. Let alone the next year, we're just going to take advantage of whatever the market offers us.
Yeah, and yeah, and I I know that was a little bit of a of a trick question, but I I figured I knew the answer to that, but the idea here is for folks at home who are. Listening, who may be a little stressed out at the news and and everything that's going on, it's it's. There's a plan in place. We're following the plan and we follow it every day, the same and every week the same. It's that's why it's in place and that's why we do.
What we do here, right? Yeah. And it's it's a great point. We do get that question quite a bit, Marcus going down. What are you going to do about it? We've already done it. It is the same thing that we do every day.
Yeah. And it's going back to last week in that evidence based investing and and just really trusting trusting the system and and trusting how that works exactly.
Right.
All right. Well, and and Doug, I you had a little funny thing in your investment this week about Saint Patrick's Day. So what's what what about Saint Patrick's Day made you excited this week?
Well, I I think you're talking about gold. So yeah, we like to, you know, joke. Hopefully you'll find it. You know that gold at the end of the rainbow. But if you don't, you will find it in your portfolio. We do have gold in there as a diversifier and as luck would have it, gold is the best performer not only on the. The year, but over the last year. Plus, it's been a great diversifier.
Great. Well and and again, diversification, so whether or not it is or it isn't, we should be ready for that, right. Looking forward. All right, Doug. Well, thank you so much for your time and. We'll talk to you.
Next. Alright. Thanks Jay. Take care.
Hello and welcome back. I'm here with Greg. Welcome back, Greg. Last week you heard us talk about behavioral financing and finances and what that is. And we kind of hit the tip of the iceberg, would you say Gregory? Yeah.
I would say so. There's so much more. But we also don't want to put you to sleep either, so it's a. Delicate dance. Yeah, that's right.
And and you know, Greg's very passionate about this. And so I'm sure he wanted to go deeper, but I, you know, I think it was a good idea. Let's let's split this across a few episodes. So now we've introduced you to what it is. And so in today's episode, we're going to kind of dive a little bit deeper into some of the biases they're referred to and what that what those are so that we can educate you on what you should be looking out for in yourself. And so you're not getting stuck in one of these. One of these biases that all you know. And I was thinking about this after we finished recording the last one. Like for you at home. You shouldn't be taking this personal in any way. If whatever we say here or something we said, you're like, oh, that's me. That that's exactly what I did. And I I feel bad now. It's like we we all do it. We're humans. Like we literally. No matter. Like it has nothing to do with with you or or anything that we literally all do this. And so we're hoping that. By doing this this this series that we can kind of just make you aware of it so. So at least the next time it happens, maybe you can pump the brakes a little bit and go, oh, I'm doing that thing that Greg talked.
About on the podcast, that's exactly right, and it's really what it comes down to is. You know, kind of. At. The at the very tip of the the hierarchy of needs right is self actualization and that is. Being able to regulate your emotions, being able to be kind of look down on yourself almost, you know, almost like a third party and recognize when things are happening and recognize when feelings are popping up and and and, you know, taking a moment and saying, OK, I see that. I see what I'm doing here. This is why I'm doing it. This is how I correct it and that's really what this is about, right? The the rational investor and what we what we help people to be and what you know our principal role, right, yes, we we're going to manage your investments and we're going to do it well and we're going to do all this financial planning for. But one of the biggest things that we can do for people is to help them, you know, help save them from themselves because we all have these kind of inclinations, and it takes that, you know, calm outside view sometimes to say. This is what you know. This is why you might be feeling that way. And this is how we, you know adjust.
Yeah, yeah, I think it's great. And so, you know, we're going to, we're going to outline some of these biases. I'm going to queue you up with a couple here, Greg, and then we could go from there, but maybe the first one we could talk about is the loss aversion, the fear of losing out or in common parlance. You know FOMO.
I mean that is, you know, such a big. Thing in everyday life as well as just. In finance as well, right like that, that affects decisions quite a bit, right. I mean think about it in everyday life, you know. FOMO. You know, and it it goes hand in hand with hurting, right? You if you see everybody else at an event, I want to be at that event. Why am why aren't? Why aren't I there? You're on social media and you see every, you know, you see a trend.
Yeah.
On social media? Well, how come we're not baking sourdough bread? How come we're not raising chickens like everybody else seems to be, right, you know, it's.
Yeah. Yeah.
That you see that often kind of in day-to-day life and you see it in finance as well, right? In loss aversion, it comes down to the fact that people weigh their losses. You know twice as much. Is their wins right? So the pain that they experience from a loss?
Hmm.
Makes a a bigger scar, you know, than mental, you know, impact.
Yeah.
Than the joy of a win, and that impacts decisions. And it can, if you let it, impact decisions negatively, right? Because sometimes, yeah. You need the loss, right. That's part of being a rational investor if you know when to sell and and know. Aren't afraid to take that loss and and utilize that. That loss, for purposes of offsetting gains, right, and putting that, putting those resources towards a better, more productive investment. Then you're going to impact your your overall plan, but some folks will hold on to losers. Too long. Yeah, and to the detriment of their investments to the detriment of their financial plan because of that loss aversion because of that, not wanting to admit they made a mistake, not wanting to. Experience the the pain or regret of a loss.
Yeah. And I mean it's it's just it seeps into our everyday life, right? Like think about you know, for those of you home that one time you got stung by a bee like now you're afraid of bees wouldn't. But you didn't think about the thousands of times bees were around you that they didn't sting you, right? It was that one time just some happenstance that you got stung by the bee.
That's.
And now you're afraid of bees, but really. They're they're around all the time. Yeah. Yeah. So, yeah, I think about that's that's an interesting way to look at it. Right. And I I think you're going to notice a trend for our listeners is holistically looking over time, but I think that's, yeah, that's just thinking about that every day, right? It's like being scared to fly or or drive a car. Right. You're only thinking about that one. Worst case scenario, or that bad thing that happened to you?
Right. And that's another, you know, that's another bias, right? That's recency bias, right? I mean, that's if you just.
Ohh yeah.
Saw news about a plane crash right now in your head, you know well, the air the the aviation sector. No good, right? Right. Can't invest in that or. It's unsafe to fly like that recent event is is made a big impact in your uh psyche, and you're basing decisions on that recency, even if it may not be supported by facts and supported by evidence.
Yeah, it's a really interesting thing and and. I think about that a lot, you know, and not not just with, not just with financial things, but just in life in general. Right. And try to think about that because I think even you know this is something for for those of you at home like now you know now that you start thinking about this and and start focusing on it even though you know it man fighting that feeling is still so hard. Like you're like come on man. Illogical about this like I know like this isn't.
Real you. I mean, you're hitting it right on the hat and that's. So much of what this is are things that you know as rational human beings, right, which is at the base of all of us we know and. And I mentioned this in the last podcast. It's that emotional intelligence, that emotional stability, the emotional awareness that I think sets apart. The you know the you know the the, the strong investor you know from others, it's what a good financial advisor will provide to you during times of chaos that is that kind of emotional stability and it's really going to be the and and it really is already proving to be the difference.
Yes.
Maker, you know, and workplaces kind of across across all sectors because. You know, AI can't provide that. Not yet. We haven't reached the singularity. Where, where? Where? You know where the computers can can talk us down, you know, off the ledge. But at a good, emotionally stable and kind of. Seeing the forest advisor Ken.
Yeah. Yeah. And I it's it's one of those things that I think falls and you could speak to this too a little bit as a lawyer for so many years, right? It's one of those things when when you partner with someone who has an expertise in a field, right, they bring this calmness. And kind of this like status quo to it because. We were talking about this last week where you like, hey, I've only been here for doing this for seven years, and I've already seen the increase in this. Someone who's been doing it 20 or 30, maybe like I am. It happens all the time, right. And so just having the ability to partner with someone who who has seen this before, who's a little emotionally disconnected from, you know, not you. What that problem is just like really makes just makes things so much easier.
Well, it really does. And and there's and there's studies to support that as well, right. The experienced investor, for instance is going to. The less affected by you know the ups and downs and and and volatility in the market versus a younger investor that.
Hmm.
Went through, you know, the financial crisis of 2008, you know, right at the beginning of their kind of investing career. Has been shown to be almost permanently risk averse, right, much less prone to a, you know, an equity focused portfolio, you know than an experienced investor who has seen multiple, you know kind of Black Swan events. And they know that. It's. You don't have to take these. Drastic, you know knee jerk reactions to in the other direction, you'll you'll still come out of it with a diversified portfolio. You know, with a solid portion allocated to equities. So yeah, it's that experience that you know the. Kind of the years in the saddle, I think of, you know, weathering some of these storms that leads to that emotional intelligence. Yeah.
Stupid. Yeah. And I think to to your point, that's actually one of the biases that our listeners have to watch out for is that anchoring bias, right? Getting stuck at the start of when?
That's.
They bought something at a certain price, or maybe they started in 2008, right before things went went South and that's now in their head forever as what this looks like.
It's exactly right, right that that anchoring is kind of. Honing in on a certain point in time, right, whether it's what you bought the stock for, you see in real estate, both Realtors and sellers and buyers. You know, hone in on the last purchase price. What the house sold for. Or you get this right. My neighbor's house sold for 400. Therefore my house is worth 400. That's discounting and kind of excluding all kinds of information, right, like there's they have 5 bedrooms, you have three. You know, they have a brand new roof, yours is 25 years old. All these different, you know, evidence and and fact points.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Right.
Yeah.
Get excluded when you when you anchor into that specific price and you see that in stock prices too. Well, I bought it at 20. I can't sell it for less than 20. That company could be. And you know, they could have gone through. Yeah. Massive change, right. It's it's not even the same company anymore. That what you bought it for is irrelevant to the current status of that company's financial health. So you have to base the decision on, not this arbitrary, you know, point in time or arbitrary price. But what's currently the reality.
Well, that that goes along, right? I mean, that's a tale as old as time I think because that's our parents always told us. You know, hey, the first impressions are always the most important, right? Because that's how people are going to. Remember you and they. And they stick just on that first impression, right, like and. And so it's a real thing out just in the world that happens. And this is no different than that. And that's that first impression that you as an investor have had or or, you know, or or your first recollection of the news was, was this good or bad thing that happened?
That's.
And you're just, well, that's how it.
Is and we see it in all sorts of, you know, things and and and you and you see some of these biases. Kind of transcend the, you know, transcend the finance field and and you see them in other other ways as well. Like the hot hand fallacy, right? A A basketball player makes 5 or 6 threes in a row. Well, they can't mess. Keep feeding them the ball. Well, mean reversion is going to happen at some point, right that this place. If they're a lifetime, 35% three-point shooter, yeah, they're not going to keep up an 80% make rate, right? It's going to come back, but that hot hand.
Yes.
Biases. This can't stop you. Give them the ball. Right. We see that with. Stop. This stop is going to the moon. It's never going to come.
Down right, yeah.
Right. And then the the the reverse is the gamblers fallacy and that's betting against it, right? Like that's walking up to a roulette table and and looking at the last 6. Rolls. You know, the last six spins were red. Well, it's got to go black, but it can't continue to go red, right? It's just. But you know, it's the opposite, but similar kind of heuristic, similar kind of bias that can lead you to just a the wrong decision so.
Right.
Yeah.
These are all these things that seep into our decision making that. We're all guilty of we're all human. We all have these, you know, mental scars that have accumulated along the way. And it makes us feel and think a different way. And. And like we've said, the best thing you can do is kind of stop, you know, step outside yourself, look down at what's happening. And say, OK, I'm feeling this way. But this is. Probably not. You know, a permanent thing like why? Why am I feeling this way? What's at the what's at the base of it? Oh, it's this. OK, let me get back to basics. Let me get back to facts and kind of make my decision from there versus getting caught up in this emotion.
Yeah. And it's interesting that you know the first thing that popped into my head when we were talking about that. Because, you know, we were talking about shooting and the hot hand was. Like your recollection of like Michael Jordan for instance, where you're just like, oh, he was the best, he never missed a shot like, right. He was a hero when I was a child, like my hero, when he was a child, like Michael Jordan. Like, it was a big deal. And then you go back on YouTube and you're like watching some of the highlights of, like, a full game. And you're like, wait. He missed shots like that. Doesn't make any. So that's not what I.
He missed lots of shots. He missed lots of game winners like nobody made every, you know, nobody made every game winner, but all we think about is those those ones that he made at the buzzer, right. I mean, you think about those, those kind of legendary games against Utah and.
Yeah.
Right.
Yeah. The flu game, right? Yeah, like all that stuff? Yeah.
Yeah, like, right, those are the things that stick in our heads and and and we base it on that, right. You think about the greatest hitters of all time, you know? And and like, man, they those guys could just hit always hit, but they were still they still failed six or seven times out of 10, right. I mean it's.
Yeah, right. They had like 50 home runs out of what, 300 games or something?
Right. Right. You know, 162 game season. I mean it's it's so yeah, we do. We get stuck on these things.
Yeah.
And we let. You know, we let emotions kind of play in, and that's what leads to maybe some some decisions that aren't optimal.
Yeah. And then and some of that can then lead to the next one, which is hurting behavior.
That's exactly right, right. I mean that's that's just that following the crowd, we talked a little bit about that last time and that's how. You know, that's how the bubbles can happen, right? I mean, if you're, you know, that FOMO, that fear of missing out, that wanting to join the crowd, we saw some of that during. COVID during the whole GameStop craziness and and you know, everybody was kind of jumping on that jumping on that train well.
Hmm. Yeah.
Depends on when you jumped on that train and as to whether or not it worked out for you right? Following the crowd does not always translate to success, right? Yeah.
Yeah. And those are and I think a lot of these biases are are magnified. Guide by the way, we consume content and information these days too, right? And and that's a perfect example of, you know, a very popular platform doing something. Then it go into these news outlets who have to serve News 24 hours a day. So they need something to talk about. This is a what? Seemed like at the time I feel good. Oh, yeah. And now it's blowing up. But half the people, regular people who maybe weren't on Reddit or weren't part of that. That initial push are are coming in at a very different time than than when it all started. Right. And and. And they just wanted to be diamond hands and and all. You know, shoot in the moon and and they just. Yeah, I'm going to do all that. But they weren't there when it was $5 or $12.00 or whatever it started at. Right. And so.
No. And and I think you're. You lead to an important point there and just the way that information is. Given these days, you know kind of the constant onslaught, right? It just. It comes at you from so many different directions and. You know, when news started, when news went news channels and and. TV and Internet. You know when it went to essentially around the clock, it kind of stopped being news and became entertainment, right? I mean it's it's. Just constant. Whatever they can get content out of, they're going to throw at you. It might have a kernel. Of truth in there, but it's a lot of it's fluff and we get and people get caught up in that fluff and. OK.
Which?
Our job is to try to sift through the noise and the fluff and and return people to the basics.
Yeah. And a lot of that, again, I'm going to do another slick transition into one of our other biases, but is is the choosing now over later the present bias, right?
Sure. You know that kind of hyperbolic. Spending, so to speak, so you know, spend now, save later, it's. That we are that's a human. That's ingrained in human behavior, right? We we we are not naturally prone to looking out long term, right? It takes emotional discipline. It takes you know, a well thought out plan and adhering to that plan to take action today. That will benefit, you know, us 1520 years from now and.
Right.
It's you have to kind of combat that on a daily basis. We all do as humans, right? We all you know strategic, we talk about living a great life and that's very important here. That is what we want our clients to live. We want our employees to live. That has to be a delicate balance between enjoying the most out of the present to the to the most responsible extent, but not to the point of irresponsibility. And then. Yet still keeping an eye on the.
Future. Yeah. And and finding that way of. Of. For yourself, saving that money or putting it into you know your 401K or investing it not as a sacrifice but as like a present to your future self. But it's hard. It's hard, right? Because you're like boy, yeah, that's that's nice. But. But I need to. Like, I gotta get groceries. I got this other stuff right now.
It is for exactly what it is. But I want this now.
That has to happen, and I, and I think just being realistic with it and and and for me, you know. A lot of what I've learned over my time here is about that balance right and saying yeah, no, of course. You got to Live Today and and take care of your family today. But you know, there's ways to do this that isn't going to be as detrimental mentally for you like to do this so that you. Your future is also taken care of, right?
Exactly right. And that gift to your future self is a great way to to to see it. I read where a an effective tool.
It's.
People. Is to use the app that shows you as an old person as a you know in your 70. If you're 50 years old.
It's.
40 years old, 30 years old. Show clients a picture of themselves when they're 7580 to kind of drive home the effect that it's coming, right? It's coming and showing that, you know, kind of breaking through that present day bias and and making them see the future more helps them save more.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right.
Yeah, right. And helps them. Give those presents to their future selves, yeah.
Well, and also just for me. You know, as someone that is kind of in that stage of life where it's trying to do both, it's it's about little steps too because I think sometimes. When we look at the future, when we look at retirement, when we look at wealth in general, right, like wealth is a large word that feels sometimes incomprehensible, right? And you've got and it's just it's not about.
Mm-hmm.
That it's about doing small steps today to build that for your future, so that you just have that great life so that you're taken care of until you're 90 or 100 or whatever it is that you you live to so that you're not. You know you don't. You don't get to that age and go.
Ah.
Kind of blew, I kind.
Good.
Of blew that. Yeah. Yeah. Well, it's like it's and it's not a one to one comparison, but it's like that, you know, back to the future, like when it goes back in time and gets the betting book right. And he wants to make all the bets on the OR goes in the future and gets the all the wins and then goes back in time to make the bets. If I had bet this on the Knicks, I would, you know, or the Mets at that one time I would have. Won and so. You know well, you could do that right now. There's there's ways to 401K savings, you know, investing in evidence based investments like that, like you could be doing that right now and it's not going to be an instant win, but it'll be a long term. And then you know, 20-30 years, 1023 years, you're gonna have what you need to live your great life.
So 100% yeah, yeah. And you know, and it's not. That's another bias, right? That conjunction fallacy like that, you know, equating one thing with another thing. If I win the lottery, I'll be happy. Well, actually, the evidence doesn't play that out. I mean it, you know. But most lottery winners have not gone on to a lifetime of happiness. They've.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
No.
You know, ended up kind of burning through it and and more miserable, yeah. So. There's a lot of different things that come into play there. We try to instill with folks. Let's put a plan in place. Let's look at the future. Let's look at your future self. Let's see what is possible at your current, you know, rate of income, your current situation assuming X, you know, assuming a couple of things, revisit that plan often. But also checking in with them on the rest of their lives. Right, because it isn't all, you know, money doesn't equal happiness, right? We want to make sure people are healthy. We want to. Make. Sure that you know that all these other factors in place are in place for them to live their best lives and we believe very strongly in that we we want folks. To. We we want to check in with them on kind.
Of all those things. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think it's all part of it. Right. And and though. Money can help. It's just one piece of the whole puzzle that we need to look.
At that's exactly right.
Yeah. All right. Well, I think we got to another great one in the books here and we'll be back next week with Greg again and and we're going to talk about actionable items and things that you can do to. But to kind of avoid or or lean into some of these.
Behaviors awesome. Looking forward to it. Thanks Greg. Thank you.
This podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. Please see the Full disclosure in our show notes For more information.
Life by Design Podcast: Behavioral Bias
Hello and welcome to the Life by Design podcast, brought to you by Strategic. This podcast is all about helping you live your great life. Each episode features insights from our Chief Investment Officer, Doug Walters, and special guest interviews.
Episode Overview
In this episode, Doug Walters explains what a market correction is and why investors should view them as a normal, even healthy, part of long-term investing. Then, Greg Mattacola, Senior Advisor and Partner at Strategic, joins Jay to explore behavioral biases—mental shortcuts and emotional reactions that often sabotage financial decisions.
Insights with Doug Walters: Understanding Market Corrections
Doug defines a market correction as a 10% decline from a previous high and explains that these events are common—often occurring once per year. He stresses the importance of staying disciplined and resisting emotional decisions during periods of volatility. Doug highlights Strategic’s evidence-based approach, including diversification and rebalancing, which helps clients stay aligned with long-term goals despite short-term market dips.
Key Points from Doug Walters:
- Market corrections are normal and occur regularly.
- Media headlines often dramatize corrections, increasing fear.
- Diversification and rebalancing are central to Strategic’s evidence-based strategy.
- Investors should focus on long-term goals and avoid emotional reactions.
Interview with Greg Mattacola: Behavioral Bias
Greg and Jay explore how behavioral biases can influence financial decisions—especially during uncertain times. They discuss how loss aversion, recency bias, and herd mentality often override rational thinking. Greg emphasizes the importance of emotional regulation and the advisor’s role in helping clients stay focused on their long-term plans.
Key Points from Greg Mattacola:
- Behavioral finance studies how emotion impacts financial decisions.
- Common biases include loss aversion, recency bias, and herd behavior.
- Awareness of emotional triggers can help investors make better decisions.
- Trusted advisors provide perspective and help clients stay rational.
- Having a consistent, evidence-based process helps prevent impulsive mistakes.
Conclusion
The insights shared by Doug Walters and Greg Mattacola reinforce how understanding both market behavior and human behavior leads to better outcomes. By combining evidence-based investment strategies with awareness of emotional and behavioral biases, Strategic helps clients make decisions that support their long-term goals—and ultimately, their great life.
Disclaimer
This podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. Please see the full disclosure in our show notes for more information.